In a near future where a fleet of driverless taxis could be at your
beck and call, what public transit will we need? If your car can drop
you off and then go home, do we need parking spaces downtown? And what
will happen to all the tow-truck drivers and couriers?
These are things Canadians and their governments should be thinking
about, says a new report from an independent think-tank focused on
economic trends.
Cars and trucks that drive themselves could hit the road in the next
decade and save Canadians $65 billion in the form of fewer collisions,
reduced traffic congestion, lower fuel costs and less time wasted behind
the wheel. But they will also have wide-reaching effects on many areas
of the economy, from the demand for fuel to urban planning to the job
market, says the report from the Conference Board of Canada.
"I think we haven't thought about it that much yet," said Vijay Gill,
director of policy research for the board and lead author of the
report.
"Not only is it going to be cool and neat, but it's going to change the way we live and do business."
Available within 10 years
By 2020, the report says, Google hopes to have fully autonomous
vehicles on the road and most major car manufacturers will be selling
vehicles capable of driving themselves at least some of the time.
Current
models of the Mercedes-Benz S-class can already automatically
accelerate, brake and steer under certain circumstances. (Fredrik von
Erichsen/Associated Press)
That's only a small step from some current models such as the
Mercedes Benz S-class, which can already automatically accelerate,
brake, and stay in the same lane under certain circumstances. By 2025,
fully autonomous cars are expected to be available from some traditional
car manufacturers.
Using Canadian statistics, Gill calculated some of the potential benefits:
- There are 2,000 vehicle fatalities a year in Canada, many caused by human error. Self-driving cars could reduce collisions by more than 90 per cent, saving $37.4 billion.
- Automated vehicles could eliminate five billion hours per year that Canadians spend behind the wheel, worth $20 billion.
- Self-driving vehicles could potentially reduce the need for car ownership, operate safely while closer to one another and easily adjust to traffic, saving $5 billion a year in congestion costs.
- They could also reduce fuel costs by $2.6 billion by reducing congestion and the need to drive around looking for parking, and by generally being more fuel efficient.
Transit planning
Gill suggests some of these changes could be barriers to the adoption of self-driving vehicles.
The potential job losses may cause some people to lobby for a slower
transition away from human drivers. He pointed out that some public
transit vehicles are already capable of driving themselves, but still
have drivers for this reason.
Other hurdles include a lack of insurance rules about who is
responsible in the case of a collision involving a self-driving vehicle
and the cost of the technology, which needs to drop before it is widely
adopted.
In the meantime, the report urges governments to consider the
potential effects of automated vehicles on major infrastructure projects
such as transit, which are planned decades ahead.
"If we're planning that for 30 years now and making more or less
billions of investments to do it," he said, "I think this work is worth
at least a footnote and probably quite a bit more than that."
